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1

Samstag, 16. September 2017, 04:34

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What should investors make of the goods and services tax
(GST)? To start with Oakland
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, GST is not an event that should drive investment
decisions, and it is only one among many inputs in the process. GST can cause
short-term disruptions that may be both positive and negative; but this is noise
that is best ignored. The sensible thing to do is to focus on the medium- and
long-term, to see if revenue improves and if the organized sector and therefore
listed companies see acceleration in growth. Here’s a look at what may lie
ahead.
Government ticks major reform box
The government gets credit for
sticking to its (revised) deadline of 1 July. GST is a crucial reform that
improves its credibility both within and outside the country. Moody’s Investors
Service was quick to announce that GST was positive for India’s rating as gross
domestic product growth will improve and tax revenues will increase. That’s a
pat on the back but stops short of a rating upgrade, and remains at a level that
the government is unhappy with.
What should investors buy?
Buy noise
filters. Jokes apart, treat all data that you see now with a pinch of salt, as
there may be a fair bit of distortion. Consider what happened in June. Many
industries, such as cars, packaged consumer goods and pharmaceuticals saw
traders and retailers cutting down on stock. They wanted to hold minimum
inventory to lower risks post-GST. Some retailers even offered huge discounts to
dispose their stock.
What does this imply? Listed retailers are likely to
report a spurt in sales growth in the June quarter. But that doesn’t mean
consumer spending is rising or that consumer goods companies have done
well.
These companies are likely to see a hit on sales in the June quarter.
Their dealers were busy clearing inventory and lowered fresh purchases. The
so-called destocking means companies’ reported sales growth will be lower and
may affect profit growth too. As
such Customized Raiders
Jersey
, the June quarter results will see the first leg of distortion in
the sales data.
As an example, month-end retail pharmaceutical inventory was
down from about 40 days to 17 days as of 28 June, according to market research
agency AIOCD Awacs. That means roughly 23 days of lost primary sales for
companies.
Companies would have cut production in response and in turn
reduced their raw material procurement. These actions should eventually reflect
in the revenues of intermediate and basic goods’ industries too.
In short,
expect a dip in sales growth in the June quarter for producers, which will vary
from sector to sector, and an increase in sales growth for retailers. As
mentioned earlier, investors should avoid the noise in this data.
After all,
the September quarter will see this
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, as the trade channels get accustomed to post-GST life and
rebuild inventory. Similarly, retailers may see slower growth, as discretionary
consumption that was advanced to the June quarter will not repeat in the
September quarter.
Is demand intact?
That is the main question investors
should be asking. Consumers have been shopping in recent weeks to take advantage
of the discounts on offer, which is a good sign. Companies have begun to pass on
price cuts to consumers, where there are tax savings. That should help demand
too. But companies will also hike prices of products where tax is higher, though
they may do it gradually and quietly.
Consumers also need to get used to GST.
Earlier, they never saw the excise component individually but now they do. Some
grumbling is already visible on social media but consumer education may allay
their apprehension.
Investors should get their first formal feedback from
management commentary post-June quarter results, especially on demand and the
channel inventory situation.
Eventually Jelani
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, it boils down to whether demand reverts to
pre-GST levels and whether more income is being captured in the indirect tax
net. If the net impact of price changes on goods and services is positive for
the household budget, then that is a good sign for consumption growth.
What
about the unorganized sector?
GST poses a big question mark on what happens
to the unorganized sector. Wholesalers who cater to rural markets and in
tier-II, tier-III markets are not prepared for GST, according to firms. News
reports indicate some wholesale markets downing shutters in protest. A
Mintreport says apparel makers are saying their suppliers and customers are not
ready for GST.
This may well be a temporary phase, as Indian businessmen can
quickly adapt to changing circumstances. If their business model turns unviable
by coming into the tax net, their survival may be under threat. This column has
written earlier on this issue.
The consensus view is that the organized
sector will gain over the unorganized, as GST creates a level-playing field.
This is a trend that will play out over the years but can be transformational,
and is something that investors should be keeping an eye on. The second half of
fiscal year 2018 is when the picture will begin to clear but the full impact of
GST
will E.
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, perhaps, become visible only in the next few
years.
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